Moon.com vs Kalshi: two different bets on the same Bitcoin
Both let you back a view on where Bitcoin goes next. On Moon.com you bet Up or Down at anything up to 1000x and your profit is the size of the move times your leverage. On Kalshi you buy a yes-or-no contract priced in cents that pays $1 if you are right. Sign up to Moon through our referral link and you can test its side of this comparison with play money before you deposit. Below: how each one prices a bet, what it charges, what you can lose, and which suits which kind of bettor.
Updated 10 September 2026. Facts sourced from moon.com and its help centre. Affiliate disclosure.
The short version
Moon.com and Kalshi both let you put money on a view about Bitcoin, but they are different products at the mechanical level. Moon is Up/Down betting against the house with a leverage multiplier from 1x to 1000x: you stake $100, pick a direction, and a 1% move at 100x is $100 gross. Kalshi is a regulated exchange where you trade yes-or-no event contracts with other members: a contract on “Will Bitcoin be above $200k by next year?” costs between 1 and 99 cents and pays $1 if the answer is yes. There is no leverage on Kalshi; the most a contract can ever return is $1.
If the question you want to bet on is “which way is the price going in the next hour, and how much do I want to make on it”, that is Moon. If it is “what is the probability this thing happens by a date”, that is Kalshi. Sign up to Moon through our link and try its side in play money first.
Sign up to Moon and try it with play money- 1x to 1000x Moon leverage
- None Kalshi leverage
- Stake + fees Moon max loss
- Contract price + fee Kalshi max loss
How each one prices a bet
| Moon.com | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| What you buy | A directional bet: Up or Down on an asset price, with a leverage multiplier | A yes-or-no event contract on a specific question, priced in cents |
| Who you bet against | Moon (house-banked; its terms reserve a spread in Moon’s favour) | Other Kalshi members on an order book |
| Payout | Price move in your direction, times leverage, times stake, less fees | $1 per contract if the event happens, nothing if it does not |
| Maximum return on $100 | Uncapped until the position is closed or liquidated | Fixed at settlement: $100 of 40-cent contracts returns $250 if yes |
| Maximum loss on $100 | The $100 stake plus fees already charged | The $100 paid plus the trading fee |
| Leverage | 1x to 1000x, chosen per bet | None |
| Markets | Crypto, stocks, futures and commodities; BTC, ETH, SOL, AAPL and TSLA were live when we checked | Event contracts across many categories, including crypto price questions on BTC, ETH and SOL |
| Regulation | Operated by Moon International Limited, Union of the Comoros; licensed by the Anjouan Gaming Authority (on its public register, not in Moon’s terms) | CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market in the United States |
| Availability | Restricted-country list applied at sign-up; the United States and United Kingdom are on it | Check Kalshi for where it accepts members |
| Practice mode | Play money, $100,000 simulated balance, unlimited refills | Not a feature we found on Kalshi’s public pages |
The row that matters most is payout. On Kalshi the outcome space is fixed before you trade: a 40-cent contract pays $1 or $0, so $100 becomes $250 or nothing. On Moon the outcome depends on how far the price moves and how much leverage you chose, so $100 can become $110 at 1x on a 10% move, or $1,100 at 100x on the same move, or zero at 100x on a 1% move the wrong way. The leverage guide has that ladder in full.
Fees, side by side
Moon charges four things, from its help centre and terms: a 1% opening fee on the stake, a holding fee every 8 hours the bet stays open at a rate Moon does not publish, a performance fee of at least 10% of realized profit, and a spread built into the price. A $100 bet that wins $100 gross pays $1 in, $10 out, and whatever holding fees accrued, so roughly $89 lands. The fees guide works three full examples.
Kalshi publishes one formula. Its taker fee is 0.07 multiplied by the contract price multiplied by one minus the price, per contract, rounded up, under its fee schedule effective 7 July 2026. That peaks at 1.75 cents per contract at a 50-cent price and shrinks toward the ends: a 90-cent contract carries 0.63 cents. Resting orders that get filled pay a quarter of that. There is no settlement fee, ACH deposits are free, and debit card deposits carry up to 2%.
So on a $100 position, Kalshi’s fee is at most $3.50 (200 contracts at 50 cents, 1.75 cents each) and Moon’s is $1 to open plus 10% of whatever you win plus holding. Kalshi is cheaper per trade at the moment of trading; Moon is more expensive on winners, because the performance fee scales with profit, and on anything held for days. The comparison changes if you registered on Moon with our code, since 3.5% of every Moon fee comes back as rakeback.
Risk: fixed odds vs a liquidation line
A Kalshi contract behaves like a probability. If Bitcoin drifts toward the level in your question, the contract’s price rises and you can sell early; if it drifts away, the price falls. Nothing forces you out. The worst case is the contract settling at zero, which costs exactly what you paid.
A Moon bet behaves like a position with a tripwire. At 100x the liquidation line is 1% from your entry; at 1000x it is 0.1%. Cross it and Moon closes the bet and the stake is gone, regardless of where the price goes afterwards. That is what makes Moon’s wins large, and it is also why most trades at high leverage lose. The liquidation guide explains the mechanism, and our liquidations page shows it happening on real positions.
Both products cap your loss at what you put in. Neither can leave you owing money.
Leverage is the whole difference
Kalshi’s downside is the price of the contract. Moon’s downside is the stake, and at 1000x a 0.1% move takes it. Treat Moon as high-risk and use play money until the speed of a leveraged bet is familiar.
Regulation and where each one is available
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market in the United States. Moon.com is operated by Moon International Limited, incorporated in the Union of the Comoros, and licensed by the Anjouan Gaming Authority, an entry on the regulator’s public register that Moon’s own terms do not print; the terms list the United States and the United Kingdom among the jurisdictions Moon does not serve. Our review covers what that means in practice, and Moon applies its restricted-country list at sign-up; the FAQ has the current list.
The practical consequence: for a US resident the choice does not exist, since Moon is not available there. Elsewhere, the choice is between a leveraged directional bet and a fixed-odds contract, and the sections above are the difference.
Which one suits you
Moon.com if you want to bet on direction over minutes to hours, want the payout to scale with the size of the move, and are comfortable that a small move against you can end the bet. The play-money mode makes it cheap to find out whether that is you.
Kalshi if you want a fixed payout on a specific question, no leverage, a regulated US venue, and the ability to sell a position early at a price that tracks probability.
For how Moon compares with a peer-to-peer prediction market rather than a regulated one, the Moon vs Polymarket comparison covers that, and Moon vs Stake covers its sister site.
Frequently asked
What is the difference between Moon.com and Kalshi?
Moon.com is house-banked Up/Down betting on asset prices with leverage from 1x to 1000x; your profit is the price move times your leverage. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where you buy yes-or-no event contracts from other members, priced between 1 and 99 cents, that pay $1 if the event happens.
Does Kalshi have leverage?
No. A Kalshi contract costs its price in cents and pays $1 or nothing. The most you can make on one contract is $1 minus what you paid. Moon offers up to 1000x leverage on a directional bet, which is why its wins and losses are far larger relative to the stake.
Which is cheaper, Moon.com or Kalshi?
They charge differently. Moon takes 1% of the stake on open, a holding fee every 8 hours, and at least 10% of realized profit, plus a spread in the price. Kalshi's published taker fee is 0.07 times price times (1 minus price) per contract, which peaks at 1.75 cents on a 50-cent contract, with no settlement fee. Which is cheaper depends on how long you hold and how often you win.
Is Moon.com regulated like Kalshi?
No. Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market regulated by the CFTC in the United States. Moon.com is operated by Moon International Limited, incorporated in the Union of the Comoros, and its Anjouan Gaming Authority licence is on the regulator's register rather than in its own terms. Moon's terms also list the United States among its restricted jurisdictions.
Can I use Moon.com in the US instead of Kalshi?
No. The United States is on the restricted-jurisdiction list in Moon's terms of service, so Moon will not serve users located there. Kalshi is the US-regulated option; Moon is for markets where it is available.
Which is riskier?
Per dollar staked, Moon at high leverage. A Kalshi contract can only lose what you paid for it and moves with a probability. A Moon bet at 1000x is liquidated by a 0.1% price move against you, so the whole stake can go in seconds. Both cap your loss at what you put in.